A month or two ago I was giving a presentation and somehow, in response to a question regarding The Future Of The Internet, blurted out that in ten years websites will no longer be the primary stream of online information delivery. Everyone got a big chuckle out of that, but it sounded so good I repeated it, this time with conviction. And you know what? I still think it’s true. (Cue laugh track).
Now let me clarify: I’m not predicting The Death Of The Website. As an analogy, consider the evolution of the compact disk music format. Who could have predicted ten years ago that mp3’s would leave mega-giant Tower Records whimpering in bankruptcy? (Well, I’m sure somebody did but perhaps not to that specific outcome). Music consumers have slowly come around to the idea of downloading music digitally, rather than buying a plastic artifact; controlling the point of distribution provided this opportunity for capitalization.
But I digress - my point is that much can change in the product marketing landscape in a very short amount of time. So imagine my interest in Guy Kawasaki’s thoughts regarding the 2008 Digital Outlook Report released by Avenue A Razorfish. Plenty here to chew on, but I’ll point out one item from Guy below:
Only a few years ago, a Web site’s home page was the most prime piece of digital real estate a publisher could offer. Not so much today, however. The relevance of the home page as a media buy is on the wane. Search, social networks, blogs, and RSS (among a host of other online sources) are driving more and more users deep into today’s Web properties. Now, the majority of consumers bypass a site’s home page completely.
This is the type of world I envision in the coming decade: multiple information streams, independent of device or platform; content that reads accurately and completely for users of all abilities; a mass-contributed exchange of ideas and events; and technology providing the social conduit which transforms the mundane to the extraordinary.
Will websites be a part of all that? Sure … I just don’t think that what we currently define as a “website” will endure in its current form as the primary delivery mechanism. It’s less to do with technology, more about how we input and receive information. With decreased utilization, will there even be such a thing as a destination homepage?